It is not an exaggeration to say that most of the western politicians are nervously awaiting the results of the parliament elections in Morocco on September 7 of this year. The problem is that according to the poles, an Islamic Party of Justice and Development (PJD), looks poised to win the upcoming parliamentary elections. IF in the 2002 elections PJD was third in its political power of the country, having gained 42 parliamentary seats out of 325 deputy mandates and became a leading opposition. Today it is possible that about 40% of voters will favor the Islamists. As a result of this, having gained support of all the small parties, it will be able to form a cabinet. In terms of stability of the Magrib region, Near East, in Europe’s point of view, such a situation is not the best outcome. After the electoral success of the radicals in the Palestine’s autonomy («Hamas») and Egypt («Muslim brotherhood»), win of the Islamists of Morocco can be the last piece of the puzzle to strengthen the Islamic fundamentalism in the Near Eastern political scene.
Even today PJD leaders speak of the necessity to raise the level of the activity of today’s cabinet, characterizing it as “catastrophic and chaotic”. Today’s object of animosity of the Islamists is the series of political reforms, led and initiated y King Mohamed the VI. The reforms have had impressive results in this sphere. Morocco has sealed its intentions in this sphere in all of the international treaties. They did not stop even before the official admission of crimes committed by governmental bodies from 1956 to 1999. Reforms have taken place in the sphere of press codes as well as social codes. The most important step was the creation of the Human Rights Committee before the King and a Committee on Fairness and Peace, also a personal initiative of the King. Today’s head of the committee and the head of the Consultants Committee Ahmed Herzeni, a fighter for the rule of law and a former political prisoner, had been appointed to this position following the death of professor Driss Benzekhri on May 20th, 2007, also a former “prisoner of conscience”. A serious democratization of the regime is reflected in the change for the better in the system of repression, supported by real facts of political practice. The demonstrations of the students from West Sahara rioting for separatism in May, have been carried out for over a week without any problems. They were stopped only when the actions of the riot participants have crossed the line. But even then only several of them have been criminally charged and earned no more than 8 to 12 months sentences. Taking into account that the protestors have made attempts at one of the three legally declared “holy treasures” of the country (Morocco’s ownership of West Sahara, as well as a high regard for their monarch and an Islamic foundation of the country are not to be criticized), one cannot call such lenient sentencing fair.
Another significant new development has occurred in the life of the country --- the adoption of “Mudavanah”, a new family law codex that balances the rights of men and women and makes them equal on the basis of traditional Islam. The reforms in Morocco have been carried out more successful than in any other country of the Magrib and Near East trying to solve their social structure issues. For instance, an almost completed construction project for the port zone Tanzher-Med 1, will provide over 150 thousand employees with jobs, which will significantly lower the social tensions in the northern provinces of Morocco.
The countries great success in its modernization is regarded very highly. King Mohammed VI had played an important role in these reformist processes which contributed to their success. The King is a strong person who feels the nuances and the realities of life in a modern society. He is determined to incorporate the traditional socium of European values into his country in order to look to the future. Politically speaking, he is congruent not as much to his father, which he will agree, but to Hussein, the deceased King of Jordan. Only this “Hussein” is modernized and fully adequate to the realities and demands of the 21st century. Moreover, the young monarch can better be compared to Islam Karimov, acting President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, which is also trying to modernize a pretty traditional society passionately opposed to Radical Islam. Nonetheless, Mohammed VI has much more power than President Karimov. First of all, he is a traditional leader, whose powers are pretty much unlimited. Secondly, within that same tradition, he carries an almost sacred authority of a spiritual leader. Thirdly, he relies on the real support from the West, material as well as propagandist. And finally, most of the “dirty work” directed at the consolidation of the society and taming the terrorists, was done by his predecessor, deceased King Hassan II. Islam Karimov could only dream about such a great foundation of power – he has to be a “strong hand”, a “father of the reforms”, and all this at the same time under the short sited aversion of certain Western elites. Be that as it may, it is certain that by his personal and political status, Morocco’s monarch is not only the main guarantor of the reforms, but an author of important initiatives on the international arena. Such initiatives include regulation of the near eastern conflict based on principles of fairness and taking interests of both sides into consideration. His meeting with the minister of international affairs Mohammed Benaissoy, his Israeli colleague Tsipi Livni described as “extremely important”. Morocco’s position , a position of a traditional Islamic country that supports a peaceful model of co-existing of the Arab-Muslim world with a Jewish country on the basis of fairness, while setting an example that such coexisting is possible, must not be overlooked.
Another important aspect of the inner politics of Morocco – is active participation in anti-terrorist measures. Terrorism is an important problem for the country, since as the reforms permeate deeper, so grows the resistance from the members of the traditional society, united on the basis of the doctrines of radical Islam. There are several not so large, but well organized extremists groups on the territory of Morocco. The most dangerous one of them is “Ansar al-Islam in Sahara” (AIS), created by the “veterans” of Iraq with the goal to destroy all “regimes of the godless in Margib”, restoring Sharia and Jihad in the Spanish Andalusia. This organization is practically a branch of the sadly infamous Algerian Salafist group of preaching and jihad (SGPJ), which until recently had called itself "Al-Quada in the countries of Muslim " (ACÌ) and competing with the group of Ben Laded/Zavahiri. Besides, Osama, as well, is determined to strengthen his influence in Magrib, acting through the Fighting Islamist Group , Morocco’s FIG-M), formed in the beginning of the century with his active participation. This organization acts mainly between the diesis of Moroccans in Europe, but trying to create a shadow center on the territory of the kingdom and establish itself as a regional branch of Al-Quada.
It needs to be mentioned that despite the fact that Morocco’s special services in cooperation with colleagues from France, USA, and Spain are acting very effectively, the volume of “work” of the Islamist underground increases daily. Some data has become available recently indicating that separatists from the Front POLISARIO, are responsible for arming religious extremists of the Sahel zone. Although ideologically Front is not close to religious extremism, being criticized harshly for that by the radicals (including AKM), according to several authoritative experts in the field, such organization today had practically lost its independence, existing almost exclusively due to Algerian support, thus realizing strategic plans of Algeria, directed to gain hegemony in the region. It is due to this very fact that the talks between the leadership of Morocco and Front Polisario, initiated by the UN, during which separatists were offered a wide autonomy for their provinces on Morocco’s territory. According to the experts, if the leaders of the Front had a choice of maneuver, these conditions would have been accepted at least as a starting point. In other words, the war in West Sahara today carries definite characteristics of not tribal separatism, but hidden aggression, realized against the kingdom from within. It is clear that working with extremists, in any form and in any way, is detrimental to Algeria itself, but it looks like its leaders are willing to risk anything just to shake the stability in Morocco.
It is without a doubt that the Party of Justice and Development at this point is far from extremist, positioning itself as a Muslim analog of demochristian parties of Europe, such as German HDS/ HSS. It is also without a doubt, that many if not an absolute majority of its present leaders actually do practice humanitarian values, based on priorities of the world and democracy. But one needs to keep in mind that ideology of a political organization is determined by the needs of its social foundation and support, which for PJD in a major way is the traditional layers of society, or “bazaar”, struggling to keep up with the fast pace of the countries development and its integration into the global system of economics. If they had their way, the main part of these voters would vote for more radical organizations. In other words, victory of PJD promotes its leaders, who sympathize with extremists in one way or another, if not directly linked to them.
To sum up, the upcoming elections are principally important not only for Morocco. The Kingdom will have to become a Guiney pig for all Muslim countries trying to break away from the closed circle of tradition. Of course, no matter what configuration of the Parliament will be, King Mohammed VI will still become a key political figure. On the other hand, coexistence of king’s power with factually oppositional Parliament leads to serious social-political break, which in its turn will enable and strengthen more marginal political groups inside the country, as well as inside the entire region. It is necessary to keep in mind the further perspective. Since the power of the monarch in its today’s form is a serious obstacle for radical Islamist groups, it is only reasonable to expect that sooner or later it will become its target. If PJD will be able to gather together all the marginal (and in percentage, unfortunately numerous) numbers of votes, then as the worst scenario it is possible with the high level of probability to predict a bloody civil war by Algerian scenario, or even establishment of theocracy regime “ a la Taliban”. It is possible to prevent the realization of such scenarios only with the support from the progressive powers such as USA and European Union, acting leaders of Morocco, especially parties, representing politically aware segments of the Moroccan society. Such support must include in itself a determination not to use the dogmatic approach to the observation and judging the electoral processes taking place in such a region that is traditional, complex, and far from full realization of the theory and practice of classical liberalism.
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07.01.2009 | Среда | 02:03 GMT
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