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It's better to resolve problems at the negotiating table but not battle fields
16 ноября 2011 | Alexander Tsinker
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Interview of Director of Institute for Countries of Eastern Europe and CIS Countries in Tel-Aviv, member of Knesset of the 15th convocation, Dr.Alekxander Tsinker with ArmInfo news agency.
Mr. Tsinker, will you please share your predictions regarding possible future of the Israeli-Turkish relations? Today they seem to be not so good...
It is necessary for everyone to understand that there can be no single leader in our explosive region, no matter how much Turkey or any other country wants that. Now, there are groups of politicians in both Israel and Turkey who think that the former relations between our countries are no longer possible. It seems to me that we will never return to the once friendly and strategic relations of Israel and Turkey.
There are several geopolitical axes on our not large globe. The USA, Turkey and Israel belonged to one of those axes before a certain period of time, while Russia, Armenia and Iran belonged to another axis. Israel and Armenia having no problems with each other had no serious bilateral relations, while Turkey was our key strategic partner in the Muslim world. Nevertheless, Turkey has been striving to get EU membership for long years and they in Ankara were well aware that they would get additional access to Western Europe and the USA via Israel.
With Erdogan's coming to power in 2003, a peculiar quiet revolution took place. After the Turkish leadership made sure that no one in the EU waits for Turkey, it began to develop a new conception to achieve leadership in the region, in the Middle East and Islamic world. Therefore, they started islamization of the Turkey that was a secular country not so long ago with army being its key guarantor of democracy. In addition, he said, Turkey has chosen quite an aggressive foreign and regional course refusing its conception of 'no problems with neighbors.' In fact, Turkey has various problems with its neighbors now. Europe, for its part, held Turkey from taking an active position in Libya. French and British leaders arrived in Libya a couple of days before Erdogan's visit to that country and enjoyed all the laurels of the winner in the Libyan war. Turkey's relations with Iran are not good either. As for Syria, Turkey has already yielded it pinning hopes with certain dividends in case if Asad's regime falls.
Despite the tense relations of Israel and Turkey, all the agreements made previously had been implemented until very recently. The situation has reached a critical point after Erdogan refused to meet with Israeli President Peres in Davos. And after the incident with the so-called Peace Flotilla and the open support to Hamas, they relations could not but be broken finally. It seems to me that Erdogan is trying to get down the too high three he has climbed on. Frankly speaking, I cannot understand the logical consequence of the Turkish leadership's actions. I cannot see any realistic goals they may achieve in exchange for some sacrifices in the relations with the neighbors.
In Armenia worsening of the Israeli-Turkish relations was taken, I would say, with a groundless optimism. How far may Israel go in the matter of recognition of the Armenian genocide, taking into account the present state of relations with Ankara?
I have always been for recognition of the Armenian genocide and lobbied this issue in the Knesset as much as I could. For this reason, with a certain share of optimism I would like to point at consistent growth of supporters of the Armenian genocide recognition among the deputies of the Knesset, which are again trying to raise this issue in Israel. But I think that the Israeli society is not yet ready to adopt such a decision. Not only Israeli politicians and public activists, but also the information policy of the leadership of Armenia are blamed for that. The point is that when discussing the issue about recognition of the Armenian genocide our parliament should adopt such a decision which will be clear to the citizens which elected their representatives to the top legislative body. But today Israeli citizens do not have enough information about the history of Armenia and the historical truth about mass murders of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Just the same way as the people of Armenia are not much informed about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the history and fight of the Jewish people for their statehood.
For instance, Azerbaijan has been holding a wide-scaled information work on all the levels in Israel, and gradually local residents of Israel understand that there is such a country - Azerbaijan which has rather good relations with us. As for Armenia's image in Israel, all the work has been implemented by a small Armenian community of Israel without any significant support of the state structures. Your Diaspora minister has recently visited Israel. She practically did not meet representatives of the Armenian Diaspora and only visited the Armenian church. Naturally, this visit was not fixed in the press much. Even direct air flights Tel-Aviv - Yerevan are not promoted in Israel. At the same time, many people in Israel are aware that Iran, our strategic enemy, the president of which officially announced about his intention to ruin Israel, is the best friend of Armenia.
What steps does Armenia take? For instance, the recent visit by an Armenian top official to Israel...
The recent visit by your top official to Israel was initiated by Israeli Ambassador to Armenia Shmuel Merom,. I don't know the name of the Armenian top official which visited Israel, but our ambassador is waiting for certain progress in the relations between Israel and Armenia in the near future. The breakthrough in the relations happened in 2006 when the delegation headed by the leader of Pan-Armenian Congress Ara Abrahamyan arrived in Israel. Today's President of Armenia, which that time was Armenia's defence minister, Serzh Sargsyan and Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II were also within the delegation consisting of 80 businessmen. That time the progress was obvious, but after the regular tension in the Israeli-Palestinian relations, when Armenian mass media covered the events in a unilateral way, the relations worsened again. It is clear, that in Israel they negatively treated the last meeting of representatives of "Dashnaktiutyun" with the delegation of the "Hamas" terrorist organization. All this complicates rapprochement between our states.
However, there are some contacts and a little commodity circulation. Though, I think there are many points for the fruitful cooperation.We should just want it.
You said about Ahmadinejad's threat to destroy Israel. Nevertheless, mass media say about the intention of Israel to start bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. Don't you think that the first target for Iran will become, let's say, the Israeli reactor in Dimon?
Nobody has officially said that we are going to bomb Iran. First, if somebody decides to bomb, he does not say about it in advance. Moreover, it is better to talk peacefully, than to fire. By the way, in the year before last Israel bombed the facilities of Syria foreseen for the nuclear weapon production. First, Syrian residents protested much, but when international experts found the remains of the elements, which proved their aggressive intentions, everything calmed down immediately. Israel managed to stop Syrian developments at least for five years. Many journalists speaking about attacking Iran refer to the speech of President of Israel Shimon Peres, who just said that if harsh international sanctions are not adopted regarding Iran because of possible veto of Russia and China, this may result in the situation that bombing of the Iranian reactors will be the only way to stop nuclear programme of Teheran. The bombing of Iran may really cause not only response strikes upon Israel but also lead to the large scale war in the region. I think that Israel will not independently take such radical steps without coordination of its actions with the USA and the leading countries of the European Union. We also hope that if Russia and the USA come to a single viewpoint about the Iranian nuclear issue, which Barack Obama has recently said about, in that case Ahmadinejad will hardly be so much uncompromising.
What can play a part of the catalyst element in the de-freeing process of Nagornyy Karabakh conflict?
Today a certain status-quo has been established, which many people compare with the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Since 1967 the separating "green line" has been established between these countries. The same situation is in case of Nagornyy Karabakh, where there is a line of contact. However, I have got an impression, that just the same way as during the talks between the leaders of Palestine and Israel, which met just for the sake of appearance, as they were not going to make any arrangement, the parties to the Karabakh conflict are not going to arrange about something either. As the Azerbaijani stance is unacceptable for the Armenian party and visa versa, and the party, which will make any compromise, will be considered a loser. I have got an impression that if the key countries which determine geo-policy in the region, in the person of the USA, Russia and European Union, would draw out a single approach to resolving of this problem, as a result of their diplomatic pressure, Armenia and Azerbaijan with certain corrections would find a mutually acceptable solution of the conflict. Nothing will change without such consensus, as in case of Israel and Palestine as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan, the parties should understand that settlement of problems is impossible without compromise. For instance, Baku should understand that there are territories which will not belong to Azerbaijan. As for the Armenian party, it has to understand that the existing territorial configuration will hardly become the final option for settlement of the conflict. Until representatives of Nagornyy Karabakh participate in the talks, it will be very hard to settle the issue. For instance, why the Dnister region can take part in a similar process but Karabakh - cannot. Absence of the key participant in the conflict, Nagornyy Karabakh, at the negotiating table turns these negotiations into an ordinary profanation. Unfortunately, the conflict will not be resolved in the near future, as such countries like the USA, Russia and France, which display activeness at the talks, will be busy with resolving of their local problems connected with holding of presidential elections in these countries.
Interview by David Stepanyan |
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